Providing full-spectrum, real-time macroeconomic insight on South Africa and across emerging markets to guide private sector strategy and risk-taking
Krutham’s macroeconomics team helps clients navigate the intersection of growth, inflation, fiscal policy, politics and capital markets. We combine rigorous modelling with deep institutional knowledge to explain what macro developments mean for balance sheets, funding strategies and reform agendas. Our work spans consistent macro-outlooks and scenario analysis through to bespoke projects on fiscal anchors, infrastructure pipelines, labour markets, trade and external balances – always with a lens to practical decisions in boardrooms and cabinets rather than abstract theory.
Our work spans consistent macro-outlooks and scenario analysis through to bespoke projects on fiscal anchors, infrastructure pipelines, labour markets, trade and external balances – always with a lens to practical decisions in boardrooms and cabinets rather than abstract theory.
Macro with a market lens
We view the economy through the eyes of investors, banks and policymakers. Our analysis links macro developments explicitly to asset prices, term premia, funding costs and risk premia so that clients can move from “what is happening” to “what should we do about it”.
Policy, politics and macro in one frame
We view politics, policy and macro as a single system. Drawing on deep political-economy expertise, we integrate fiscal and monetary choices, reform progress, political cycles and institutional constraints to produce realistic scenarios rather than purely technical forecasts.
Applied research across the real economy
Our projects span labour markets, households, trade and investment, infrastructure and financial sector development. We examine how these are shaped by the growing intersection of monetary and fiscal policy. We often combine detailed micro evidence with a macro framing to support decision making by both public and private sector clients.
Data rich, model grounded
We use a wide toolkit, from high-frequency indicators and micro data through to structural and econometric models. That enables us to stress-test views, quantify uncertainty and provide clients with transparent, repeatable frameworks rather than black-box calls.
From baseline to scenario thinking
From research to implementation
Our work does not stop at the research note. We support clients with presentations, investment committee materials, policy submissions and engagement strategies so that macro insights are translated into concrete decisions on issuance, asset allocation, capital planning and reform priorities.
Macro partner to capital markets
We work with banks, asset managers, insurers and hedge funds to provide macro, political and reform analysis that feeds directly into investment strategy, asset allocation and risk management.
Support to policy and reform processes
We advise governments, development agencies and organised business on macro-fiscal strategy, structural reforms, just energy transition and infrastructure policy, helping to align reform agendas with macro stability and growth.
Applied research across the real economy
Our projects span labour markets, households, trade and investment, infrastructure and financial sector development, often combining detailed micro evidence with a macro framing to support decision making by both public and private sector clients.
Regular insight, real-time support
Clients can access our periodical macro publications, thematic deep-dives and real-time responses to major data releases, budgets, MPC meetings and political events, supported by direct access to analysts for rapid follow-up and custom analysis.
Macroeconomic research and forecasting:
Baseline and scenario forecasts for growth, inflation, interest rates and exchange rates
Macro-fiscal and debt dynamics projections
External balance and capital flow analysis
Monetary and fiscal policy analysis:
Central bank reaction function and MPC analysis
Inflation targeting, credibility and expectations work
Budget, MTBPS and fiscal anchor analysis, including debt sustainability and funding strategies
Macro-financial and capital markets analysis:
Sovereign risk premia and yield curve decomposition
Term premia and credit spread analysis
Implications of macro and reform scenarios for bonds, FX and rates markets
Reform and political economy advisory
Assessment of structural reform packages (energy, logistics, SOEs, labour markets)
Political-economy risk analysis and scenario mapping
Support for policy design, consultation processes and stakeholder engagement
Household, labour market and sector diagnostics
Labour market and wage dynamics, including employment forecasting
Household balance sheet and credit health analysis
Sector-specific macro work on trade, investment, infrastructure and key industries
Communication and stakeholder support
Board and executive presentations on macro themes and scenarios
Written submissions, policy briefs and thought leadership pieces
Training sessions and masterclasses on macro, politics and reform for internal teams
— Peter Attard Montalto, Managing director
From “Sure, the vibe is suddenly buoyant, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves“