Macroeconomics

Providing full-spectrum, real-time macroeconomic insight on South Africa
and across emerging markets to guide private sector strategy and risk-taking

Krutham’s macroeconomics team helps clients navigate the intersection of growth, inflation, fiscal policy, politics and capital markets. We combine rigorous modelling with deep institutional knowledge to explain what macro developments mean for balance sheets, funding strategies and reform agendas. Our work spans consistent macro-outlooks and scenario analysis through to bespoke projects on fiscal anchors, infrastructure pipelines, labour markets, trade and external balances – always with a lens to practical decisions in boardrooms and cabinets rather than abstract theory.

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The Krutham approach

Our work spans consistent macro-outlooks and scenario analysis through to bespoke projects on fiscal anchors, infrastructure pipelines, labour markets, trade and external balances – always with a lens to practical decisions in boardrooms and cabinets rather than abstract theory.

Macro with a market lens

  • We view the economy through the eyes of investors, banks and policymakers. Our analysis links macro developments explicitly to asset prices, term premia, funding costs and risk premia so that clients can move from “what is happening” to “what should we do about it”.

Policy, politics and macro in one frame

  • We view politics, policy and macro as a single system. Drawing on deep political-economy expertise, we integrate fiscal and monetary choices, reform progress, political cycles and institutional constraints to produce realistic scenarios rather than purely technical forecasts.

Applied research across the real economy

Our projects span labour markets, households, trade and investment, infrastructure and financial sector development. We examine how these are shaped by the growing intersection of monetary and fiscal policy. We often combine detailed micro evidence with a macro framing to support decision making by both public and private sector clients.

Data rich, model grounded

We use a wide toolkit, from high-frequency indicators and micro data through to structural and econometric models. That enables us to stress-test views, quantify uncertainty and provide clients with transparent, repeatable frameworks rather than black-box calls.

From baseline to scenario thinking

We build clear baselines for growth, inflation, interest rates, the fiscal position and the exchange rate, then overlay structured scenarios around key risks. Clients see not just the central case but how different combinations of shocks could affect funding costs, capital flows and credit outcomes.

From research to implementation

Our work does not stop at the research note. We support clients with presentations, investment committee materials, policy submissions and engagement strategies so that macro insights are translated into concrete decisions on issuance, asset allocation, capital planning and reform priorities.

Proven results

Macro partner to capital markets

We work with banks, asset managers, insurers and hedge funds to provide macro, political and reform analysis that feeds directly into investment strategy, asset allocation and risk management.

Support to policy and reform processes

We advise governments, development agencies and organised business on macro-fiscal strategy, structural reforms, just energy transition and infrastructure policy, helping to align reform agendas with macro stability and growth.

Applied research across the real economy

Our projects span labour markets, households, trade and investment, infrastructure and financial sector development, often combining detailed micro evidence with a macro framing to support decision making by both public and private sector clients.

Regular insight, real-time support

Clients can access our periodical macro publications, thematic deep-dives and real-time responses to major data releases, budgets, MPC meetings and political events, supported by direct access to analysts for rapid follow-up and custom analysis.

Comprehensive capabilities

Macroeconomic research and forecasting: 

  • Baseline and scenario forecasts for growth, inflation, interest rates and exchange rates

  • Macro-fiscal and debt dynamics projections

  • External balance and capital flow analysis

Monetary and fiscal policy analysis: 

  • Central bank reaction function and MPC analysis

  • Inflation targeting, credibility and expectations work

  • Budget, MTBPS and fiscal anchor analysis, including debt sustainability and funding strategies

Macro-financial and capital markets analysis:

  • Sovereign risk premia and yield curve decomposition

  • Term premia and credit spread analysis

  • Implications of macro and reform scenarios for bonds, FX and rates markets

Reform and political economy advisory

  • Assessment of structural reform packages (energy, logistics, SOEs, labour markets)

  • Political-economy risk analysis and scenario mapping

  • Support for policy design, consultation processes and stakeholder engagement

Household, labour market and sector diagnostics

  • Labour market and wage dynamics, including employment forecasting

  • Household balance sheet and credit health analysis

  • Sector-specific macro work on trade, investment, infrastructure and key industries

Communication and stakeholder support

  • Board and executive presentations on macro themes and scenarios

  • Written submissions, policy briefs and thought leadership pieces

  • Training sessions and masterclasses on macro, politics and reform for internal teams

Thought leadership

“Ultimately we must consider everything — including real rates, investment decisions, jobs, growth, tax and sentiment — as interconnected and driven by many factors, including complex ones such as crime and corruption.”

From: Peter Attard Montalto

Sure, the vibe is suddenly buoyant, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves

Ready to make macro work for you?

Whether you are a bank or asset manager navigating volatile markets, a company planning long-term investment or a policymaker designing reforms, we can help you connect macro conditions to concrete strategic choices. 

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