There has already been much talk about why 2024 will be a watershed election in South Africa. Considering developments such as the recent by-election results and a focus on coalitions as support for the ANC continues to decline, the upcoming election promises to be crucial for the country’s direction.
Business leaders and investors will increasingly need insights into the ebb and flow of support for political parties. They will also require information about the likely scenarios that will emerge from national voting results and key provincial outcomes, such as in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal.
From the firm that has provided actionable political insights for 15 years, supporting investors and corporate decision-makers to anticipate major political events and their consequences, we bring you a South African first.
Krutham (previously Intellidex) is launching what we expect to be the country’s first major private polling election product in recent times. Through expansive data collection efforts, we will track shifts in voting intentions as we lead up to election day, delivering the largest subscriber product of its kind to businesses and investors.
For investors seeking actionable insights, private polling is a vital tool in the lead-up to the upcoming election. We will leverage the scale of this undertaking to narrow margins of error and ensure the integrity and robustness of our product. This includes committing to plough additional income from subscriptions back into increased sample sizes and added weeks of polling before the election. As such, we guarantee a baseline product with possible add-ons as time progresses.
As South Africa stands on the brink of an electoral season that could potentially reshape its trajectory, decision makers’ need for accurate, nuanced, detailed and timely polling data is critical. The landscape of South African politics is transforming, reflecting new alliances, changing voter preferences, likely lower turnout, coalitions and a significant shift in the political discourse. Our polling tracker offers a window into these shifts, enabling you to respond promptly and appropriately.
Our polling insights are designed to help subscribers understand voting intentions at the national and provincial level, voter turnout and the interplay between the two. The product will provide regular six-weekly and later weekly insights into voter sentiments, allowing you to stay ahead of emerging trends to make informed decisions based on the current political climate.
We will cover the entire electoral cycle, providing insights from November 2023 to election day 2024. This includes a minimum of four polls (around six weeks apart) and weekly tracker poll updates for at least six weeks before election day. This comprehensive coverage includes the meticulous reporting of results with a detailed emailed report after each poll and a follow up question and answer session with the team on the available results.
Each report will provide the following insights:
We will also host several webinars and events around the results for subscribers.
Early subscription benefits
To maximise the value of our polling tracker, we encourage clients to subscribe as early as possible. An early subscription guarantees a more favourable pricing structure but also ensures a richer data experience, as you will have access to a broader swath of trend data over time. As we move closer to the election, the pricing per poll will increase. This pricing strategy is designed to reward early engagement, offering our early subscribers notable savings.
While this product does not include our in-depth political economy advisory services, this can be added at a reduced fee. The same is true for existing clients of our c-suite retainer and capital markets subscriptions, who will receive a discount for adding our polling product to current subscriptions.
Striving for more
We are committed to providing our subscribers with a baseline number of polls at a fixed price. However, as we garner more subscribers, we plan to extend the product beyond this baseline. Our goal is to enhance the quality and scope of our polling continuously. Therefore, as subscriptions increase, we will expand our offerings by adding extra weeks of tracker polling. At the same time, we will strategically boost our sample sizes, especially in the crucial weeks leading up to election day, ensuring even narrower margins of error.
When subscribing, clients secure access to all upcoming polls from subscription date through to election day. It is important to note that the subscription price will be adjusted after the release of each poll. This new rate remains valid until the next poll is released.
You have the flexibility to settle your subscription in one upfront payment or split it into two lump sums. We accommodate invoicing in ZAR, USD, EUR or GBP. All invoices are payable immediately upon receipt. Your subscription access begins once your payment has been verified and confirmed by us.
We offer full subscription packages. This means we do not provide subscriptions for individual polls or grant access to previous reports for an extra fee.
We will utilise mobile phone polling, a method ideally suited for South Africa, given its high mobile penetration. This approach allows for larger sample sizes, ensures high levels of interview script completeness and enhances accuracy through overweighting minorities in demographics. While face-to-face polling can achieve similar results, it comes with unwieldy costs and extended timelines. We will be working with Victory Research to undertake the polling, while an overseeing advisory panel will ensure methodological robustness and accountability of our processes.
We ensure the integrity and reliability of our polling data through:
We understand the high stakes of political results and precision’s importance. While this product is designed to map turning points and ongoing shifts in voter behaviour, ultimately, the end result matters most. Below, we outline our partner, Victory Research’s track record in the 2016 and 2021 local elections (ward vote) and 2019 national South African election outcomes. These outcomes were well within the margin for error in each case.
About our research partner
Victory Research is a leading South African opinion research company. They are experts in quantitative and qualitative research, analytics and statistics and have extensive experience in political, social and consumer research. The team has over 60 years of combined experience through their backgrounds in political campaigning and leading scientific methods and systems. Some of their clients include Business Leadership South Africa, Uber, Populus, FirstRand, KPMG, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research and the South African Institute of Race Relations.
Building on a 15-year commitment to South Africa
With more than 15 years of experience researching the most complex issues in emerging markets, we provide clients with insights that stand up to scrutiny. Krutham is a research-led consulting firm specialising in developing economy capital markets and financial services. Our experience spans various industries, with a strong focus on the financial services sector, and our projects typically involve complex data-gathering exercises, demonstrating our capability to conduct in-depth diagnostic research and provide strategic advice. In particular, we are deeply experienced in working at the intersection of politics, policy and finance and on contentious and important strategic issues within the political economy in South Africa.
A multi-disciplinary approach
The team consists of over 30 highly qualified professionals, including those with PhDs, MBAs and CFA charterholders with decades of financial services and research experience between them. In addition, we draw on a network of 40 associates with relevant experience in understanding region-specific opportunities and challenges. This expertise allows us to follow a multi-disciplinary approach, adapting to the specific problems our clients are trying to solve.
Evidence-based and data-driven advice
We exist to help our clients solve complex issues. That is why our work is evidence-based and recommendations are data-driven. With a proven track record in political analysis, we help governments, corporate South Africa, political parties, international organisations, and the media better understand public opinion, voting intentions and trends.